How long, O Lord?

So today let’s talk about disasters and duration. Most emergency measures organizations recommend that you have a 72 hour (3 day) supply of food, water, medicine and other necessities on hand. Recently, I’ve noticed that it is more and more common to see 96 hour (4 day) kit be recommended, and even one week kits. This is a good thing, in my opinion, as it shows that these organizations are looking at the reality of large scale disasters.

At least in North America, the start of recommendations to longer duration kits had a lot of it’s genesis in the aftermath of Katrina, when the scale of the disaster proved too large for immediate remediation with the resources available. Other disasters in the last decade, such as the Indonesian tsunami of 2004, the Haiti and Chilean earthquakes, and the earthquake and tsunami in Japan this year have given us further examples of how inadequate disaster preparations are when confronted with massive events.

It’s not that the governments aren’t trying to be prepared. The sad fact is that preparations sufficient to prepare for a truly large scale disaster are just too expensive to create and maintain. Disaster preparedness is more and more seen to be at least partially the responsibility of the individual, especially in the immediate to medium term before a government can marshal resources.

For the individual, it means making darn sure that you have that one weeks supply AT A MINIMUM. But give some thought to the longer term. In the aftermath of a large disaster, help might not arrive in sufficient amounts for weeks. Being prepared might simply be the difference between being hungry because only a trickle of food is getting through, or it might mean the difference between life and death.

Even in situations such as the flooding we’ve seen this spring, your supplies can make a big difference. For example, if you’re out of a job because water has flooded your workplace, life is a lot easier if you’re eating out of your larder and not trying to find money for food.

Give some thought to the long term. As the weeks and weeks of flooding have shown us this year, disasters can be of varying intensities and durations. As well, past experience has also shown us that help can be a long time coming. Plan for it not to arrive.

Originally posted June 29, 2011 @ CPN

Come Hell or High Water

As I write this, 11,000 people have been evacuated from their homes in Minot, North Dakota. Hundreds of homes are already flooded and id one article I read stated that as many as 4,000 houses might ultimately be flooded. The crest, expected to be a foot and a half higher than the present water levels is supposed to occur this weekend, after which we may assume that an end to the weeks long battle will finally be in sight. Minot and many other communities on both sides of the border have run themselves ragged coping with the flooding.

In fact, they have done a magnificent job, but as in Minot and some other towns, sometimes everything you’ve got is just not enough. And that not enough came with plentiful government assistance from state, provincial , and federal aid in many cases. In some places, there was just too much water and not enough money, manpower or time.

Now think about this sort of disaster in the context of financial or societal collapse. Who will evacuate you, shelter you or build your dykes and levees when there is no money? As we have seen in many towns and municipalities around North America since 2008, when the money runs out, the services stop being delivered. Stories of desperate communities laying off police and firefighters, and cutting services to whole derelict areas are easy to find on the web.

The much ballyhooed TEOTWAWKI may not be with the bang of a Carrington Event or nuclear war; it might be the whimper of bankruptcy, financial disorder, and the slow erosion of services we now see as the bare minimum of civilized living. If you wake up one day to a house full of water, it may be because no-one had the money to maintain levees, not because the water was too high.

Once infrastructure begins to fail, it can result in even bigger crises. Consider the Cooper nuclear plant in Nebraska. Recently, floodwaters had risen to a level of 44.8 feet. At 45.5 feet, the plant would be shut down, and at 46.5 feet, the power plant would flood. If flooded, it is likely that it would be months at least before resuming generation of electricity. Now think what happens if there is no one to help, no one to build dykes and levees, no one to ensure a safe shutdown if necessary.

It’s just that easy. It takes little in our interconnected world to start a chain of failures. Very often, one event will precipitate another, and if you do a little reading of true survival stories, it becomes obvious that it is usually a chain of events that causes a serious problem, not one isolated incident.

Your only defense is to be aware. Stay informed, and make your decisions on the basis of worst case scenarios, not best. Analyze your preps in the light of serial or concurrent failures.

Of course, if you listen to the politicians, the “high water event” we are experiencing comes along once in 300 years, an unfortunate conjunction of saturated soils, large winter runoff and unprecedented rains.

On the other hand, I’m told we’re at the start of a fifteen year wet cycle. I think I’ll keep prepping for now.

It’s just common sense.

Review: Man. Woman, Wild

There is yet another survival show out there. I find it interesting in that it takes a step away from the rugged he-man of some shows (Man vs. Wild, for example) or even two men (Dual Survival). This show features a married couple, Mykel and Ruth Hawke. Mykel Hawke is an American, the usual ex-military, ex-special forces type. Ruth Hawke is a television journalist from England, and apparently a survival newbie.

While the show follows the timeworn and familiar format of “we’re stranded in the desert, on an island,” etc. and most of the principles and skills being taught are basic and familiar to anyone that has watched almost any show in this genre, it has some features that intrigue me.

For a start, there is a female involved. Almost all of these shows involve beefy males showing you why they are manly by eating bugs and why you’re a wuss for puking at the thought. Her reactions to some of the situations have a distinct feminine viewpoint that is somewhat refreshing and interesting. Seeing that half the world is female, there is a good chance you might end up trying to survive with one of the fair sex, and it is worthwhile to see how at least one of them copes.

Additionally, we are seeing how a married couple interacts. Not everything is nose rubs and cuddles, and again, the psychology of a male/female pairing working together is interesting. While at times the Hawkes are so cute together it makes you want to puke, you do get a bit of a look at how their marriage dynamic works in a survival situation, good and bad.

Another interesting thing is that unlike many of the survival shows out there, at least one of the presenters is new to survival. Ruth Hawke is presented as someone wanting to learn the skills, and that works on two levels. One is that often things need to be explained at a very basic level to her since her level of knowledge is so low, and thus we get the actual basics without a subtext of assumed knowledge.

Another thing that is refreshing is her reaction to some of the skills she learns (She takes a childlike delight in boiling water with hot rocks), and her disgust at some of things she has to do to survive.

The show also has going for it the fact that unlike some shows,the Hawkes fail. In the initial season, at least one of their ‘missions’ results in failure when they cannot achieve their goals and Mykel Hawke considers them dead, had it been a real situation. In at least one other episode, one of them would likely have died, had there not been a crew on hand to intervene in a medical emergency.

All in all, it is a somewhat different take on the usual hair- chested approach to survival. While it has its faults, it is worth watching for the male/female dynamic and female viewpoint alone.

Next week it's back to our tool series.

Originally posted June 20 , 2011 @MPN

Bang for the Buck

I’m a day late. Generally, I try to post every Sunday, but had a small emergency that delayed me. Anyways, here goes.

I’m a regular reader of many survival or preparedness related blogs. And on these blogs, you’ll often find equipment reviews. Heck, I do a few myself. What annoys me is that with all of these reviews, the reader is often being told that this knife, this rifle, that water filter or the newest bit of load bearing equipment is, if not touted as THE way to go, then at least ‘one of the very best’ out there. And that can lead to gear envy.

Yup, the dreaded gear envy. Sadly, no one is reviewing your old Puma-Tec knife and singing its praises. No reviewer is talking about your old Remington 870 Wingmaster and extolling it as the best thing since sliced bread. And so it goes, on and on in every category of gear you can imagine. The marketplace has or is going to come up with something better than what you have, and aren’t you a schmuck for not having it?.

If you’re smart, you’ll realize that your old 870 will do the job, and getting a 12 gauge with a military styled stock in black or camo will not make you a better shot. Having the latest in ‘combat’ knives will not make you a more deadly knife fighter. ( In fact, two things about that: 1. If there is somebody in arm’s reach trying to hurt you, you’ve already screwed up royally. 2. To quote a novel and a recent TV program: “Stick them with the pointy end”. But I digress….)

In reality, newer fancier gear will not significantly improve your survivability. There is something called the 80/20 principle that runs something like this: 80% of your result is achieved with the first 20% of inputs. The remaining 80 % of input will increase your result only an additional 20%. An interesting business principle, but how does that apply to us?

What it means is that a good, serviceable knife will do the job. The extra ‘oomf’ you get from a bigger fancier knife will cost you a lot of bucks for marginal improvement. The same goes for firearms, water filters, binoculars and almost every piece of equipment I can think of.

The only place I don’t see that being the case is with food and water. There, another week’s worth of supplies is just that. It a definite one to one, where the value received is exactly the same per unit of input regardless of the amount of input.

So think about it the next time you are trying to decide between more storage food and a new rifle, or more water and a shiny Rambo knife: Decide where the best value for your dollar is. Make sure you’re putting out 20% for an 80% result, and not the other way around.

It's common sense.

Originally posted June 20, 2011 @ CPN

I was at a political meeting today. There are elections slated for this fall, and the candidates and those working for them have the opportunity to go to ‘election schools’. These are seminars designed to get everyone familiar with the thrust of the campaign and the ins and outs of the process, and that is what I attended. I returned disillusioned.

Although I’ve been on the fringes of politics before, I’ve been inactive for some time and I had forgotten how much extremism resides in any party, especially among the true believers, those completely and utterly committed to a political idea. Frankly, it sickened me and is making me rethink my commitment to work for the candidate, but it reminded me that extremes are part of everything.

I consider extremism in any form highly dangerous. A party that cannot consider the other side of an issue will, if in power, attempt to suppress those other views by some means. It may be as mild as labeling those ideas ‘unpatriotic’ as we saw done in the USA when people with reservations about the invasion of Iraq spoke up, or it could be as harsh as what we are seeing in Libya and Syria these days.

So it also goes with people. A person that is extreme in their beliefs, whether political, religious or racial, will not see you as fully human, and will think of you as the enemy. If you are the enemy, they will feel fully justified in doing whatever they think is necessary to you in order to obtain their goals. Whether it is a seizure of goods, or money, restriction of rights, or even drafting your services in an emergency, they will do it. It’s a really good reason to stay clear of people, organizations, and if you can, governments that show signs of being too extreme.

If you can do that, there is only one extremist you need to watch for: you. It is too easy in the survival and preparedness game to become invested in a particular viewpoint. The right firearm, the right bug-out vehicle, bugging-out versus bugging-in, the net is overflowing with people who are absolutely sure their way is the right and only way to prepare. In fact, it seems that the more extreme are your views, the more popular your blog will be.

In my opinion, that rigidity of thought is a dangerous thing. When you become wedded to a point of view, there is a distinct possibility that you will not recognize when conditions have changed and that your viewpoint is no longer valid, perhaps invalidating many of your preps. As an example, take the Manitoba flooding this year. Had a major crisis occurred at the height of the emergency, bugging out might have been impossible for some people. Had you based everything on the unshakeable conviction that you would be able to get out in your tricked out SUV or other ultimate vehicle, you might have been stuck before you even started.

A silly example, but what it means is this: Have two (or more) ways of getting out, realize that there is more than one way to purify water, to provide food, or to defend yourself, and that things could go bad in ways that you’ve never thought of and for which you are unprepared. If you are flexibly minded you’ll deal far better with that than someone locked into their own particular world view.

Do as the Buddhists do, and find the Middle Path, that neutral, unbiased state open to all things.


It’s common sense.

Heard the News?

A few moments ago, I ran a couple of ‘home pages’ for news. The first thing that came up was a feature about Lady Gaga’s sister…not the pop star, just her sister, making a red carpet debut. The second was about Kate Middleton wowing people in a $6,000 dress. On the TV, the big news is about some U.S. congressman sending risqué photos to people via his phone, and which team will win a largely meaningless trophy after a hockey game.

As seeming afterthoughts there are stories about Libya and some flooding in Manitoba. There was little of what I’d call important news, and certainly nothing in depth. This worries me, because despite the increasingly connected world we live in, obtaining ‘hard’ news is getting to be much more difficult. The noise to signal ratio, to use an old radio term, is just too high. That makes it a little more dangerous for preppers.

In many scenarios, the ability to recognize the onset of a crisis is crucial to your ability to deal with that crisis. Is there a food crisis? Possibly, but to find out what the outlook is for the world’s food supply will require a lot of hard work and digging. Is a financial crisis immanent? Maybe, but trying to sort out some good solid advice in the masses of information and disinformation out there is a Herculean task.

Part of the problem is that much news coverage is geared to keeping the attention of the MTV generation. If you can’t get it into a 60 second sound bite you’re going to lose the audience. It leaves little time for digging into the heart of the matter, if anyone still cared to do so.

It is a situation that you as a prepper need to remedy for yourself. Turn off Family Guy, and try to find some in depth news in that 200 channel cable package. Subscribe to some magazines that don’t just report on Justin Bieber’s new tattoos. Buy a newspaper that doesn’t have a page 3 girl and does have a international news section. If you’re on the net, look for a discussion board about the world at large, not just a specific hobby or interest.

Most importantly, find some news sources that do not fit in with your particular viewpoint. It makes an neccessary check and balance on your own worldview to have to consider and weigh the merits of opinions contrary to your own.

Will this keep you safe? Of course not. At least not until newspapers start carrying predictions of earthquakes and tsunamis (and getting them right!). However, if you are well informed, you might know what your local government can and cannot do in the event of a natural disaster, and allow you to plan accordingly. You might not be caught completely flatfooted due to an economic crisis or other calamity that might show warning signs.

It’s not easy to sort the wheat from the chaff in the information world, but it is a task you need to start doing. Find those sources you consider reliable and stay informed. Knowledge is power, and the more you have, the better prepared you’ll be. Think of it as a higher level situational awareness.

It's just common sense.

Originally posted June 12, 2011 @ CPN

Who's the Boss?

"There are men in all ages who mean to govern well, but they mean to govern. They promise to be good masters, but they mean to be masters." –Daniel Webster

Anyone who has been around the preparedness and survivalism movement for any length of time will know that many people speak of surviving the crisis (whatever they conceive it to be) and then concentrating on rebuilding society. Have you ever stopped to think what kind of society that might be?

There are of course the usual run of wet-dreamers that think that after the collapse of society that they will rebuild it in their image. That usually means that in the new order, they are in some sort of position of power. They see themselves as neo-feudal overlords, ready to dispense the high and low justice, and establishing some sort of dynasty. If you think this isn’t the case, read some of the current survivalist fiction out there.

This sort is more likely to become bandit than boss. No doubt the majority will be as inadequate a personality after a collapse as they were before, but losers with weapons can still be dangerous, and might occasionally succeed where there is no other force to stop them.

Then of course, there is the ‘militia’ movement, more prevalent in the USA than here in Canada, but still a faction of survivalism to be wary of. At their peak in the mid-nineties, there were nearly 900 militia groups in the US alone, but were thought to be in a serious decline since then. However, given the political and economic strife of recent years, a resurgence is not at all unlikely.

In the past, these groups have sometimes been heavily armed, had compounds out of which they based themselves, and in some cases have had stand-offs with law enforcement. The likelihood of a group such as this being able to control an area and impose their version of society is not inconsiderable.

Some groups set up along religious or racial lines, and woe to those that do not meet their criteria. The best case scenario is that they ignore you; the worst is that you are incorporated or otherwise forcibly governed by such a group and their rules. We have seen plenty of instances in the past few decades where people have been persecuted and killed for their race, ethnicity or beliefs, and while we like to think we in North America are above that, the reality is otherwise.

Take for instance the ‘American Redoubt” movement urged by a well known survivalist author. What is being proposed by this gentleman is essentially a breakaway country that would by a theocracy. Would those that were not believers be welcome to stay in that new land? Or would they be persecuted and finally forced to leave?

While I’m no fan of many of the current trappings of society, I am wary of what people might try to put in its place. While the current system has its faults, it affords the vast majority of us a degree of safety, both from our fellows and government, that most societies would love to have. Should it fall apart, we would do well to be wary of those that seek to seize power and rebuild in their own image.

Essential Tools: Garden

Welcome to another mini-series. This one is about basic tools.

Have you ever noticed how many survival gurus tell you to be prepared to grow your own food? Mostly they tell you to do so, mutter something about heirloom seeds, and then proceed straight to the discussion of what main battle rifle would be best to have to protect your garden. Very rarely will they recommend what to plant or what you need in the way of tools to cultivate your garden.

This isn’t an article about what to grow. This is a discussion of the tools I think are useful in to a survival garden. You don’t need all of them all of the time, but these are the ones I believe would be most useful to someone trying to grow enough food to stay alive. So let’s begin:

The Cutter Mattock – this consists of an adze with an axe blade mounted opposite to it. It is used for digging and chopping, and would be my first choice if I needed to break ground for a garden. You can break up and move the densest soils with this, and the axe component of the head will make short work of roots.

Garden Fork - a four tined fork used for lifting and turning over the soil. I believe this is likely the most basic and most necessary of the gardener’s tools. It is easier to get into the soil than a shovel, and the tines can be used to rake out weeds and stones.

Rake – the heavy duty variety, not a leaf rake. You’re going to use this to smooth out your soil once it is dug, leaving a nice level seed bed that is free of clods and rocks.

Hoe – One of the most ancient of tools, this is used for creating furrows for planting, hilling plants (i.e. moving soil) and weeding. Another must have in my book.

Dutch hoe – a type of hoe with a sharp, sometimes oscillating cutting blade that cuts off weeds just under the ground. Great for weeding between rows.

Shovel – you’ll want several here. Include a pointed spade for digging in hard ground, a square spade for somewhat easier ground, and a square shovel for moving loose material like sand for a start. If you have the need, you might want to acquire a trenching spade as well.

Axe – at least one general purpose axe.

Sickle – used to harvest grass or grain, it’s worth taking a look at. Handier in tight spots than it’s cousin.

Scythe - The cousin of the sickle, you can harvest far more in the same time, but there are drawbacks. The most important these is that it takes some skill to use one efficiently.

These are the basic tools you’ll need, but there are lots of others out there. All of the tools mentioned are long handled compared to hand tools, and you need to know how to maintain and repair them. The minimum you'll need is a good whetstone and some flat files. If you can afford multiples of each tool, get them. And speaking of hand tools, there are a few that would come in handy:

Garden knife - also known as a soil knife or weed knife, this a large double sided knife used for weeding and digging. Especially useful for working with berry bushes, grape vines and that sort of thing, in my opinion.

Garden trowel - a small shovel like hand tool used to dig with. Very handy when transplanting into a garden or other plant bed.

Seed dibbler – for seeding, obviously

Watering can – No running water? You’ll need a good sized one of these.

Of course, what you get will depend on what you’re growing where you’re growing it, and how you’re growing it. While my preference is for basic tools that I can repair, do not require gas, and don’t require parts, it doesn’t mean you shouldn’t take advantage of whatever technology you feel comfortable with. If it’s a gas powered cultivator, fine. Or maybe it’s simply a push along precision seeder like the one at the bottom of the page. It's up to you and what you're comfortable with.

Just make sure that you have the tools you need, not just the seed.

Next week we’ll look at a basic tool selection for the woods.



Originally posted June 07, 2011 @ MPN

Beyond Basics

There is a lot of interest in survival and preparedness these days. The airwaves seem to be full of series and specials teaching you how to survive, and there are others that have come and gone that are available for download and even whole Youtube channels with hours of information and how-tos. It’s a good thing, isn’t?

I wonder about that. Let’s start with the internet experts posting their ‘expertise’ on the internet. Brilliant thinkers that are packing a full sized can of WD-40 in their bug out bags to keep their folding knife lubricated, or astoundingly bright lads that think there is nothing wrong with packing two pounds of spaghetti sauce in a glass jar in their backpack. If it’s not that it’s some nut telling you how to carry a fancy EDC bag that weighs 15 pounds.

You can’t make this stuff up. Because of the surge of interest in preparedness and survival, instant experts abound, and much of the information out there is at best of little value, at worst dangerous.

Not that there isn’t good info out there. There is tons of it. Dual Survival, Out of the Wild, Man, Vs. Wild, Man, Woman, Wild…the list goes on and on. Sometimes I wonder if there is still enough wilderness for all of them to survive in while they film their programs. Unfortunately, while they are (usually) competent and delivering solid info, they are covering the same ground over and over again. How many times do you need to be shown how to make a fire drill, or to build a shelter, or any of the other basics you see?

We need to teach beyond the basics. Basic skills are great, but that is all they are. Basic first aid? Good, but EMT training is better. Basic firearms knowledge? Good but gun smithing is better. The list goes on. I know in the past that I’ve said that becoming a master at all skills is a hopeless pursuit, and I still believe that. Spending money on books, tools, and supplies you aren’t skilled enough to use is crazy. But sitting with the same BASIC skills and thinking that they are enough to see you through is just as crazy.

Let’s start teaching and demanding more in-depth material for our prepping. We won’t become masters of all subjects, but perhaps we can become competent journeymen in a few, or at least promising apprentices instead of novices.

Originally posted June 05, 2011 @ CPN

One born every minute

Survivalism and preparedness are now big business. With this year’s earthquake and tsunami in Japan, the recent Haitian and Chilean earthquakes, and the devastating 2004 earthquake and tsunami, we’ve seen some disasters of unprecedented scale. Then add in a spring of tornados, floods, and fires and you have a population that has gotten a non stop TV diet of ruined homes and destroyed lives. Don’t forget to include a worldwide recession that contrary to what you’ve been told, never really ended and is poised to take another dip if things work out just right (or wrong, depending on your point of view).

To finish it all off, get a few nutcases screaming about Judgment Day in May or October of this year, and 2012 looming towards us, and you’ve got a population as unsettled and worried as I’ve ever seen it. And where there is anxiety, there are those ready to take advantage of it. Some see an opportunity to market skills, some see a business opportunity, and some see an opportunity to separate suckers from their cash.

This is happening in a number of venues and by a variety of methods. First, there is the information market. Send in X dollars and I’ll tell you how to build a retreat, create a food storage program, how to beat the (coming) market crash, and a hundred other things.

First, the information they are selling is often available in the public domain if you look for it. You might feel comforted by being instructed by someone that ‘knows’ what to do, but half the crap I’ve seen sold to new preppers is compiled from public sources! Further, many of the survival ‘bibles’ being offered for sale were written up to forty years ago in some cases and are badly out of date in many areas.

The information sale might also be in the form of a subscription that gets you into the inner sanctum of the webpage. Or by visiting a website, you are adding to the traffic that supports the ads in the margins (just like the ones NOT in the margins of this blog.) But one way or another, you are paying for the information, and someone is making a profit off of you.

Then there is the instructional market. For a few hundred or a few thousand bucks, someone will teach you how to rub sticks together, or how to knap flint, or how to shoot and scoot like Rambo his own self. Thousands of dollars to learn skills that may be self taught (e.g. primitive fire making) or learned at the local level (e.g. marksmanship at your local rifle club). In most cases, it’s a poor return for your cash.

Before I go any farther, let me state that I haven’t any particular grudge against websites that offer survival information, or people that run instructional courses. It’s just that very often the consumers (that’s you and me) have no way of assessing the value of what we’re receiving for our money. Sadly, for every honest merchant of information or goods, or teacher of skills out there, there seems to be ten times the number of rip off artists and poseurs.

Speaking of rip off artists, that brings us to the mercantile aspect of the survival ‘industry’. In the past few years, I have seen prepping become an insane growth industry. Unfortunately, much of the growth has been in the form of unscrupulous people offering suspect goods. There are multi year food packages worth a quarter of their price. Night vision that doesn’t work. Gear of all kinds, made shoddily, that looks good in the catalogue but falls apart the first time you use it. I'm sure you can fill in examples of your own.

Just try to look at the current environment in information and goods as another challenge to survival. Be as stingy with your time and money as possible. Make sure you’re getting real value out of your preps, and not being preyed upon. Survive in a marketplace that’s out to kill your pocketbook and your chance of being properly prepared.

It’s common sense.