Almost every other column or article on survival seems to concern the bug-out vehicle. If it’s not what constitutes the perfect bug out vehicle, then the article is about the perfect load for the vehicle, the perfect accessories, or the perfect plan on how to get into it and get out. All good as far as it goes.
The problem is that the chances of a successful vehicular bug-out involving a longish distance from one area to another area are pretty iffy at best. These plans always seem to assume that the writer and his merry band, jaws firmly set, will manage whatever small inconveniences that occur to arrive safely at their destination. Unfortunately for those that will need to leave a major urban center, this isn’t likely. Let’s look at the reasons why:
Vehicle Failure: Whether a blown piston, EMP, or simply one too many flats from broken glass and rubble, the possibility of your bug-out vehicle letting you down is significant. You can reduce the chances of failure by keeping your vehicle well maintained and having a certain amount of spares and tools on board, but you can’t eliminate it.
Lack of Fuel: This to me is a high probability scenario. Fuel shortages might make it impossible to have enough fuel on hand. If you do have fuel, traffic jams that have you crawling along wasting fuel and unplanned detours can conspire to make what seemed like a surplus of fuel into a shortage. Obtaining more along the route will be exorbitantly expensive, if not impossible. Seem unlikely? Just look at the evacuation of New Orleans to see all of the above in action.
Infrastructure Destruction: If the route to your safe haven crosses even one potentially fallen bridge, one underpass that may be flooded, or one road along a hillside that might be buried by avalanche or swept away in a mudslide, you can be stopped dead. We forget that our vehicles depend on carefully prepared and maintained roads to function. The next time you drive anywhere, imagine the bridges you cross are down, the underpasses are blocked, the pavement heaved or washed away. Imagine your route blocked bumper to bumper and side to side with abandoned cars. How would you proceed?
Weather: In all of that post-apocalypse fiction did you ever notice how the end of the world always occurs in the warm, dry summer? How about if it comes during a January blizzard? In Manitoba, the possibility of having to make it from point A to point B in bad weather is pretty good. What happens to you if your vehicle is stuck in the snow and out of gas five miles from your destination in -30C? What happens to your supplies if you have to leave them in your vehicle in sight of a main road because the dirt road to your safe zone is a sea of mud because of rain?
Government Action: In a crisis, governments will do their best to control the situation. Often, this will result in curfews or bans on travel into or out of certain areas. Vehicles, perhaps yours, might be requisitioned by emergency services or police, and items seen as hazardous to the public good, such as firearms, might be confiscated. A vehicle loaded to the max with goods might make you look like a looter to an overworked cop, and there is a possibility that you might be arrested and held until the authorities ‘sort it out’. Perhaps your goods and vehicle might even still be there when they let you out, if it’s not too late by then.
Civil Disorder: While I’m not a ‘Golden Horde’ fantasist, the likelihood of some opportunistic crime and looting taking place in the wake of a really big disaster is almost certain. Being caught in a riot and having your vehicle disabled, or being ambushed and robbed of everything you own are possible scenarios. The greater the scale of the crisis, and the longer it continues, the greater the chance of civil unrest.
So there are just a few ways you might wind up without your carefully prepared and stocked bug-out vehicle. Not that I’m advocating that you should abandon a plan involving a vehicular bug-out. Just that that you are not assured of making it where you need to be by driving. You need to have a plan B. And maybe a Plan C as well. Next we’ll look at Plan B and the alternatives to the bug-out vehicle.
Originally posted June 22, 2010 @ MPN
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